Storm Surge: Toowoomba Braces for Heavy Falls and Flash Flood Risks

Toowoomba residents are being urged to keep their umbrellas close and stay off the roads where possible this Friday, February 13, 2026. The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a significant weather outlook for the Garden City, predicting a day dominated by heavy rainfall and the potential for severe thunderstorms. As a moisture-rich system moves across the Darling Downs, the community is advised to prepare for a total washout to end the work week.

Morning: A Grey and Gritty Start

The day is set to begin under thick, heavy cloud cover with a very high chance of rain from the early hours. Morning commuters should expect significant visibility issues and slippery conditions, particularly when navigating the Toowoomba Range. Temperatures will start at a steady 20°C, providing a humid and damp start to the day. Despite the grey skies, the UV index is still predicted to reach an extreme level of 13. While the sun may be obscured by the developing storm cells, sun protection is technically recommended between 8:00 am and 4:10 pm for anyone working outdoors.

Afternoon: Severe Storm Potential

As we move into the afternoon, the risk of severe weather intensifies significantly. The official forecast indicates a near-certain 95% chance of rain, with total daily falls predicted to reach between 30 mm and 90 mm. The Bureau has highlighted the chance of thunderstorms throughout the day, with the afternoon cells likely to be severe. These storms are expected to bring locally intense rainfall, which the weather bureau warns may lead to flash flooding. Local residents in low-lying areas and those near local creek networks should remain vigilant as water levels can rise rapidly under these conditions.

Evening: Blustery Winds and Continued Rain

The damp and unstable conditions are expected to persist well into the evening and overnight hours. Winds will be notably strong, gusting from the east to southeast at speeds between 30 and 45 km/h. This will likely make the 21°C maximum temperature feel significantly cooler than the mercury suggests. The rain is unlikely to ease until well into Saturday, so those with Friday evening plans are encouraged to reconsider travel and prioritize indoor activities.

Critical Warnings and Statistics

A Flood Watch is currently active for several catchments in the region, including the Condamine River. Key weather data and warnings for today include:

• Flash Flooding: Intense rainfall bursts may cause rapid rises in urban drainage systems and local waterways.
• Wind Hazards: Sustained southeasterly winds of 30 to 45 km/h are expected to buffet the Ridge.
• Severe Thunderstorms: High probability of severe cells capable of producing damaging rain.
• Temperature Range: A very narrow corridor with a minimum of 20°C and a maximum of only 21°C.
• Rainfall Volume: Forecasted totals of 30 to 90 mm across the Toowoomba area.

Residents are reminded of the primary safety rule during heavy rain events: If it's flooded, forget it. Stay safe and stay dry, Toowoomba.